Forex Analysis, Reviews, Signals and Forecasts ☀️

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook

Nov 16, 2024 | 04:33 am

EUR/USD’s decline from 1.1213 resumed last week and fell to as low as 1.0495, before recovering just ahead of 100% projection of 1.1213 to 1.0760 from 1.0936 at 1.0483. Initial bias stays neutral this week for consolidations. But outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.0760 support turned resistance holds. On the downside, firm break […] The post EUR/USD Weekly Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook

Nov 16, 2024 | 04:29 am

USD/JPY’s rise from 139.57 continued last week and hit as high as 156.74 before retreating. Initial bias stays neutral this week first and some consolidations could be seen. But further rally is expected as long as 151.27 support holds. Above 156.74 will target 61.8% projection of 141.63 to 153.87 from 151.27 at 158.83. In the […] The post USD/JPY Weekly Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

GBP/USD Weekly Outlook

Nov 16, 2024 | 04:25 am

GBP/USD’s decline from 1.3433 resumed last week and hit as low as 1.2596. Initial bias stays on the downside this week and further fall should be seen to 100% projection of 1.3433 to 1.2842 to 1.3047 at 1.2456. On the upside, above 1.2719 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But outlook will stay […] The post GBP/USD Weekly Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

USD/CHF Weekly Outlook

Nov 16, 2024 | 04:19 am

USD/CHF’s rally from 0.8733 extended to as high as 0.8916 last week, but retreated after hitting 61.8% retracement of 0.9223 to 0.8374 at 0.8899. Initial bias remains neutral this week for consolidations first. But outlook will stay bullish as long as 0.8773 resistance turned support holds. Sustained trading above 0.8899 will pave the way back […] The post USD/CHF Weekly Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

AUD/USD Weekly Report

Nov 16, 2024 | 04:14 am

AUD/USD’s fall from 0.6491 resumed last week. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 61.8% projection of 0.6941 to 0.6511 from 0.6687 at 0.6421. Firm break there will target 100% projection at 0.6257 next. On the upside, above 0.6511 support turned resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first. But outlook […] The post AUD/USD Weekly Report appeared first on Action Forex.

USD/CAD Weekly Outlook

Nov 16, 2024 | 04:10 am

USD/CAD’s break of 1.3976 key resistance last week confirms larger up trend resumption. Initial bias remains on the upside this week. Next near term target is 61.8% projection of 1.3418 to 1.3958 from 1.3841 at 1.4175. On the downside, below 1.4032 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first. But outlook will […] The post USD/CAD Weekly Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook

Nov 16, 2024 | 04:06 am

GBP/JPY’s late decline and break of 55 D EMA (now at 195.24) argue that corrective rise from 180.00 has completed with three waves up to 199.79, after hitting rising channel resistance. Initial bias is back on the downside this week. Firm break of 193.45 resistance turned support will bring deeper fall to 183.70 next. For […] The post GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook

Nov 16, 2024 | 04:02 am

EUR/JPY’s fall from 166.67 continued last week after interim recovery. The break of 55 D EMA (now at 163.41) argues that corrective rebound from 154.40 has completed with three waves up to 166.67. That came after rejection by 61.8% retracement of 175.41 to 154.40 at 167.38. Initial bias is now on the downside this week […] The post EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

EUR/GBP Weekly Outlook

Nov 16, 2024 | 03:56 am

EUR/GBP edged lower to 0.8259 last week but recovered since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week and outlook stay bearish as long as 0.8446 resistance holds. On the downside, below 0.8306 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 0.8259 first, and then 0.8201 key support. Nevertheless, firm break of 0.8446 will […] The post EUR/GBP Weekly Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

EUR/AUD Weekly Outlook

Nov 16, 2024 | 03:49 am

EURAUD stayed in consolidation above 1.6161 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week and further fall is expected with 1.6598 resistance intact. On the downside, below 1.6161 will target a test on 1.5996/6002 key support zone. In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5996 support holds, up trend from 1.4281 […] The post EUR/AUD Weekly Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

EUR/CHF Weekly Outlook

Nov 16, 2024 | 03:45 am

EUR/CHF still didn’t succeed in breaking out of converging range last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 0.9331 will target 0.9305 support first. Firm break there will bring retest of 0.9209 low. On the upside, break of 0.9444 will bring stronger rally to 0.9506 […] The post EUR/CHF Weekly Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

Gold Forecast: Gold Continues to See Pressures but Also Hope on Thursday - 15 November 2024

Nov 15, 2024 | 07:21 am

Gold forms a hammer after early losses Thursday, signaling potential recovery towards the 50-day EMA. Key support: $2,500; resistance remains strong.

AUD/JPY Forex Signal: Aussie Dollar Continues to Consolidate Against the Yen - 15 November 2024

Nov 15, 2024 | 07:17 am

The Aussie dollar rallied a bit during the course of the trading session on Thursday as we continue to see a lot of back and forth.

ASX 200 Forecast: Continues to See Buyers on Dips - 15 November 2024

Nov 15, 2024 | 07:11 am

The ASX200 has rallied pretty significantly during the trading session on Thursday as it looks like the 8200 Australian dollars level will continue to be important and recognized as potential support.

USD/JPY Forecast: Greenback Continues to Reach Higher Against the Japanese Yen - 15 November 2024

Nov 15, 2024 | 07:05 am

The US dollar initially rallied a bit during the course of the trading session on Thursday as we reached the 156 level and peaked above there but have since pulled back ever so slightly.

USD/CHF Forecast: Dollar Continues to See Buyers Against the Franc Despite Being Stretched - 15 November 2024

Nov 15, 2024 | 07:00 am

The US dollar has rallied a bit during the course of the trading session on Thursday against the Swiss Franc, although we are seeing a little bit of give back later in the day.

USD/CAD continues to break out

Nov 15, 2024 | 06:51 am

I've been pounding the table for awhile on USD/CAD longs and it's all come together in the past two months, with a one-way move up through a series of highs in the 1.3950 range. Now the pair has clearly broken out and it's due to a soft Canadian economy and a surprisingly strong one in the US. The Fed is already talking about slowing rate cuts and the Bank of Canada is likely to cut 50 bps next month.Technically, this is as clear as the bitcoin breakout above $73,000. The target is 1.4500. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Nov 15, 2024 | 06:14 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 155.60; (P) 156.01; (R1) 156.68; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral first with current retreat, and some consolidations could be seen below 156.74 temporary top. Outlook will stay bullish as long as 151.27 support holds, in case of retreat. On the upside, above 156.74 will resume the rally from 139.57 […] The post USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Nov 15, 2024 | 06:11 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8861; (P) 0.8890; (R1) 0.8932; More… Intraday bias in USD/CHF is turned neutral first with current recovery. Some consolidations would be seen first but outlook will stay bullish as long as 0.8773 support holds. On the upside, sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 0.9223 to 0.8374 at 0.8899 will pave the way […] The post USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Nov 15, 2024 | 06:08 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2623; (P) 1.2674; (R1) 1.2719; More… No change in GBP/USD’s outlook and intraday bias stays on the downside. CUrrent fall from 1.3433 should target 100% projection of 1.3433 to 1.2842 to 1.3047 at 1.2456. On the upside, above 1.2768 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But outlook will stay bearish […] The post GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Nov 15, 2024 | 06:02 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0490; (P) 1.0536; (R1) 1.0576; More… Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays neutral for consolidations above 1.0495 temporary low. But outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.0760 support turned resistance holds. On the downside, firm break of 100% projection of 1.1213 to 1.0760 from 1.0936 at 1.0483 will target 1.0404 key fibonacci […] The post EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

Nasdaq Technical Analysis – Just a pullback or the start of a bigger correction?

Nov 15, 2024 | 04:06 am

Fundamental OverviewThe Nasdaq rallied into a new all-time high following Trump’s victory and the red sweep as the market started to look forward to bullish drivers like tax cuts and deregulation. The only bearish reason people were looking at was the rise in Treasury yields. That’s generally bearish only when the Fed is tightening policy not when yields rise on positive growth expectations.Right now, the Fed’s reaction function is that a strong economy would warrant an earlier pause in the easing cycle and not a tightening. That should still be supportive for the stock market.If the Fed’s reaction function changes to a potential tightening, then that will likely trigger a big correction in the stock market on expected economic slowdown.For now, the current pullback looks as something healthy given the very strong rally following Trump’s victory, so the dip-buyers should be happy about it. Nasdaq Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that the Nasdaq pulled back to a key swing high level at 20790. This is where we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the level to position for a rally into a new all-time high. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the major trendline.Nasdaq Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have also the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level standing right around the swing high level. This should technically strengthen the support level and give the buyers a nice level where to lean onto and protect their stops. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to extend the pullback into the trendline. Nasdaq Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor downward trendline defining the current pullback. The sellers will likely keep on leaning on it to position for new lows, while the buyers will look for a break higher to increase the bullish bets into a new all-time high. The red lines define the average daily range for today. Upcoming CatalystsToday we conclude the week with the US Retail Sales report. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

S&P 500 Technical Analysis – Another great dip-buying opportunity?

Nov 15, 2024 | 03:30 am

Fundamental OverviewThe S&P 500 rallied into a new all-time high following Trump’s victory and the red sweep as the market started to look forward to bullish drivers like tax cuts and deregulation. The only bearish reason people were looking at was the rise in Treasury yields. That’s generally bearish only when the Fed is tightening policy not when yields rise on positive growth expectations.Right now, the Fed’s reaction function is that a strong economy would warrant an earlier pause in the easing cycle and not a tightening. That should still be supportive for the stock market.If the Fed’s reaction function changes to a potential tightening, then that will likely trigger a big correction in the stock market on expected economic slowdown.For now, the current pullback looks as something healthy given the very strong rally following Trump’s victory, so the dip-buyers should be happy about it. S&P 500 Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that the S&P 500 is pulling back to the key support level around the previous all-time high at 5927. This is where we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the level to position for a rally into a new all-time high. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the trendline around the 5800 level. S&P 500 Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level standing right around the support level. This should technically strengthen the support and give the buyers a good level where to lean at and protect their stops. The sellers will look for a break lower to increase the bearish momentum into the trendline.S&P 500 Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor downward trendline defining the current pullback. The sellers will likely continue to lean on it to position for new lows, while the buyers will look for a break higher to increase the bullish bets into new highs. The red lines define the average daily range for today Upcoming CatalystsToday we conclude the week with the US Retail Sales report. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

GBPUSD Technical Analysis – The US Dollar rally might have run out of steam

Nov 15, 2024 | 02:43 am

Fundamental OverviewThe US Dollar yesterday weakened across the board despite a higher than expected US Core PPI and Fed Chair Powell acknowledging the need to proceed more carefully with rate cuts from here on. This might be a signal that the market could be fine with just two rate cuts priced in for 2025 and will need some stronger reasons to price out those as well. This could trigger a bigger pullback in the US Dollar after the incredible run since the beginning of October.On the GBP side, this week we got the UK labour market report and although the data was mostly mixed, it leant more on the dovish side. The UK GDP this morning missed expectations slightly but overall the week didn’t change much for the BoE.The market sees just a 17% chance of a 25 bps cut in December and a total of 61 bps of easing by the end of 2025.GBPUSD Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that GBPUSD is testing a key swing low level at 1.2660. This is where the buyers are stepping in with a defined risk below the level to position for a pullback into the major downward trendline. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into new lows although a break below the major upward trendline will give them much more conviction.GBPUSD Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see more clearly the consolidation around the key level. There’s not much else we can glean from this timeframe so we need to zoom in to see more details.GBPUSD Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that the price is breaking out of the minor downward trendline that was defining the bearish momentum on this timeframe. The buyers will likely start to pile in here to position for the pullback into the major trendline and will likely increase the bullish bets on the break of the minor resistance zone around the 1.2715 level. The sellers, on the other hand, will likely step in around the resistance to position for the break below the major upward trendline. The red lines define the average daily range for today.Upcoming CatalystsToday, we conclude the week with the US Retail Sales data. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

EURUSD Technical Analysis – The price fails to break through a crucial level

Nov 15, 2024 | 02:01 am

Fundamental OverviewThe US Dollar yesterday weakened across the board despite a higher than expected US Core PPI and Fed Chair Powell acknowledging the need to proceed more carefully with rate cuts from here on. This might be a signal that the market could be fine with just two rate cuts priced in for 2025 and will need some stronger reasons to price out those as well. This could trigger a bigger pullback in the US Dollar after the incredible run since the beginning of October.On the EUR side, not much has changed with the market continuing to price in a 31% chance of a 50 bps cut in December and a total of 148 bps of easing by the end of 2025. This could turn out to be too much if the data picks up. EURUSD Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that EURUSD bounced from the key support zone around the 1.05 handle. That’s where the buyers stepped in with a defined risk below the level to position for a rally back into the 1.08 handle. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into new lows.EURUSD Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have a downward trendline defining the current bearish momentum. We can expect the sellers to lean on it to position for the break below the 1.05 handle, while the buyers will look for a break higher to increase the bullish bets into the 1.08 handle.EURUSD Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor resistance zone around the 1.0590 level where we have the trendline for confluence. This is where the sellers are likely to step in with a defined risk above the resistance to position for the break below the 1.05 handle. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break higher to increase the bullish bets into the 1.08 handle. The red lines define the average daily range for today. Upcoming CatalystsToday, we conclude the week with the US Retail Sales data. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Gold Technical Analysis – The correction looks to be over for now

Nov 15, 2024 | 01:12 am

Fundamental OverviewGold is pulling back a bit now after an almost 8% selloff since the US election day. The market didn’t react hawkishly after another hot US PPI report and an acknowledgement from Fed Chair Powell that they can proceed carefully on rate cuts. The market might be fine with just two rate cuts priced in for 2025 and will need some stronger reasons to price out those as well. For now, the correction looks to be losing steam and might even be over. In the bigger picture, gold remains in a bullish trend as real yields will likely continue to fall amid the Fed’s easing cycle, but the short-term corrections will be triggered by a repricing in rate cuts expectations. Gold Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that gold broke through the key trendline around the 2600 level and extended the drop into the 2536 level. If we get a bigger pullback, the sellers will likely step in around the broken trendline and the swing low level at 2600. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into a new all-time high. Gold Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have a downward trendline defining the current bearish momentum. The sellers will likely lean on it to position for new lows, while the buyers will look for a break higher to increase the bullish bets into the 2600 level.Gold Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, there’s not much else we can add here as the sellers will look for a rejection around the trendline and the buyers will look for a break to the upside. The red lines define the average daily range for today. Upcoming CatalystsToday, we conclude the week with the US Retail Sales data. See the video below This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Nov 15, 2024 | 00:02 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 197.28; (P) 197.76; (R1) 198.45; More… GBP/JPY is still bounded in sideway trading below 199.79 and intraday bias stays neutral. Further rally is expected as long as 55 D EMA (now at 195.24) holds. Above 199.79 will resume the rebound from 180.00 to retest 208.09 high. However, sustained break of 55 D […] The post GBP/JPY Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Nov 15, 2024 | 00:00 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 163.91; (P) 164.44; (R1) 165.09; More…. No change in EUR/JPY’s outlook and intraday bias stays neutral. On the downside, sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 163.48) will argue that whole corrective rise from 154.40 has completed with three waves up to 166.67. Deeper decline should then be seen back to […] The post EUR/JPY Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

EUR/GBP Daily Outlook

Nov 14, 2024 | 23:56 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8305; (P) 0.8315; (R1) 0.8322; More… Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral for the moment. More consolidations could be seen above 0.8259 but further decline is expected as long as 0.8446 resistance holds. Break of 0.8259 will resume larger down trend to 0.8201 key support. In the bigger picture, down trend from […] The post EUR/GBP Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

Nov 14, 2024 | 23:52 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6268; (P) 1.6299; (R1) 1.6345; More… Intraday bias in EUR/AUD stays neutral as consolidations continues above 1.6161 temporary low. Risk will stay mildly on the downside as long as 1.6598 holds. On the downside, break of 1.6161 will resume the decline from 1.6590 to target a test on 1.5996/6002 key support zone. […] The post EUR/AUD Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

EUR/CHF Daily Outlook

Nov 14, 2024 | 23:50 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9352; (P) 0.9370; (R1) 0.9395; More…. No change in EUR/CHF’s outlook as range trading continues. Intraday bias bias stays neutral. On the downside, break of 0.9331 will target 0.9305 support first. Firm break there will bring retest of 0.9209 low. On the upside, break of 0.9444 will bring stronger rally to 0.9506 […] The post EUR/CHF Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

EUR/CAD Forecast: Euro Finds Support Against Canadian Dollar

Nov 14, 2024 | 23:20 pm

During my daily analysis of minor currency pairs, the EUR/CAD pair has captured my attention as we have tested a major support level, only to turn things around and show signs of life.

EUR/USD Forecast: Euro Bounces from Crucial Support Level

Nov 14, 2024 | 23:15 pm

During my daily analysis of the EUR/USD pair, the first thing that I notice is the fact that we have bounce from a crucial large.

GBP/CAD Forecast: British Pound Bounces Against Canadian Dollar

Nov 14, 2024 | 23:10 pm

During my daily analysis of the minor currency pairs around the world, the GBP/CAD pair has caught my attention, because we have turned around to form a bit of a hammer.

NZD/CAD Forecast: New Zealand Dollar Bounces from Support Level Against Kiwi

Nov 14, 2024 | 23:05 pm

During my daily analysis of minor currency pairs, the NZD/CAD pair has captured my attention, due to the fact that we bounce from a large, round.

USD/CAD Forecast: US Dollar Continues to Power Higher Against Loonie

Nov 14, 2024 | 23:00 pm

During my daily analysis of the USD/CAD pair, I have seen a lot of upward pressure, and we are now well above the crucial 1.40 level.

NZDUSD trades to and through lows going back to 2023 but bouncing

Nov 14, 2024 | 19:36 pm

The price of the NZDUSD moved below a swing area of lows going back to 2023 between 0.58488 and 0.58592. That area encompassed the last five swing lows going back to November 2023 (see numbered circles on the chart above). Getting below those level was a path to lower level including the swing low from 2023 at 0.5774. However yesterday, the price reached a low of 0.58382 and bounced higher. Today the low price reached a low of 0.58391 and has once again bounced higher. The current price trades at 0.58588.The breaks are in jeopardy of failing which could give buyers the go-ahead to probe more to the upside.The next upside target would be 0.58841. That was near the high from yesterday and also near a swing low going back to May 1. It is not the strongest of technical levels but moving back above that level would give shorts and sellers some cause for pause, while giving buyers some added confidence.Absent that, and the sellers are still more in control. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

AUDUSD trends down this week. What is needED to turn the technicals around for the pair?

Nov 14, 2024 | 17:15 pm

After rebounding after the US election last week, and approaching the AUDUSDs 100 day MA, buyers turned to sellers and have pushed the price lower ever since. For this week, each of the days have been lower Will today make it 5 for 5? Technically, in order to turn the bias around and give the buyers some comfort, getting and staying above the 100 hour MA is needed. The problem is with the price at 0.6450, the 100 hour MA is up at 0.6524. The good news is because the price has been trending lower, the MA is moving lower fast with the price but still lags.Nevertheless, as time goes by, and with a modest correction, both those may meet. Until then however, the sellers are more in control. The buyers are losing. On the downside there is some support at 0.64349. If the price moves below that level, the sellers add to their control.and you can expect more downside momentum This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The EURUSD starts the new day with the bears still in control

Nov 14, 2024 | 14:19 pm

The EURUSD fell to new low in 2024 and low going back to October 2023 in trading yesterday. The low price reached to 1.0495. That low got within 12 pips of the low swing area target at 1.0483 (see red circles on the chart above). The price rebounded into the close with the pair moving to a high of 1.0582. Recall from earlier this week on Tuesday, the low reached 1.0594 after breaking to a new 2024 low at 1.06005 (going back to August). That break failed. Then on Wednesday, a new low was made in the European session at 1.0592 and again the break failed. Later in the day, both those level were broken and stayed broken on the corrective move higher (see the chart below). That holding under the 1.0592-94 area increases the area's importance going forward. It would now take a move above 1.0594 - and then the 1.06005 level (the August low) - to give the buyers some added confidence today and going forward. Absent that, and the sellers are still in firm control.After falling 1.05% last week, the EURUSD is down another 1.6% this week. The price is trading at the lowest level of the year and going to October 2023. The next downside target is at 1.0483. Move below that level and traders will be targeting the 2023 low at 1.0448 and then the 50% of the EURUSD range from the 2022 low to the 2023 high. That level comes in at 1.04053. ----------------------------------------------EURUSD Market UpdateThe EUR/USD currency pair reached a new low in 2024, dropping to 1.0495, nearing the target low swing area of 1.0483.Key Points:The pair rebounded to 1.0582 after touching a new 2024 low at 1.0495 on ThursdayThe corrective high moved toward the previous swing lows from earlier this week at 1.0592-94. That area is a key target - along with the August low at 1.06005 - that needs to be broken to give the buyers more confidenceSellers remain in control without a break above these levels.The currency pair is down 1.6% this week and 1.05% last week.Next downside targets: 1.0483, 1.0448 (2023 low), and 1.04053 (50% of 2022-2023 range).Current Market Status:Lowest level since October 2023.Sellers in firm control. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

USD/TRY Forecast: Lira Steady Amid Rising October Home Sales

Nov 14, 2024 | 05:47 am

The USD/TRY pair continued to move at the same pace as it has been trading over the past few months.

Gold Analysis: Gold Price Heading for Deeper Losses

Nov 14, 2024 | 05:41 am

As predicted, Trump's victory has strengthened the US dollar, leading to further losses in gold prices, which have been steadily declining and are now around the support level of $2550 per ounce at the time of writing, the lowest price in two months.

USD/JPY Analysis: Jumps to a Four-Month High

Nov 14, 2024 | 05:33 am

In today's Thursday trading, the Japanese yen plummeted to its lowest level in four months against the US dollar, with losses extending to the 156.13 level.

GBP/USD Analysis: Bearish Trend is Getting Stronger

Nov 14, 2024 | 05:17 am

Following the release of stronger-than-expected US inflation data, selling of the GBP/USD currency pair increased with losses extending to the support level of 1.2672, the lowest for the currency pair in three months.

EUR/USD Analysis: Breaking a Crucial Support Level

Nov 14, 2024 | 05:11 am

Alongside the anticipated Trump policies - a stronger US dollar - US inflation figures came in stronger than expected.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis – We are testing a key support zone

Nov 14, 2024 | 03:17 am

Fundamental OverviewThe US CPI yesterday came in line with expectations leading to a bit of a “sell the fact” reaction in the US Dollar. The bullish momentum picked up a bit later though as Fed’s Logan delivered a hawkish comment saying that “models show that Fed funds could be very close to neutral” basically implying a lot more cautious approach on rate cuts in 2025.The market is viewing all of this in light of the recent US election as Trump’s policies are likely to spur growth and potentially keep inflation above target for longer, making the Fed’s job of bringing inflation back to target a bit harder. NZDUSD Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that NZDUSD is testing a key support zone around the 0.5850 level. This is where the buyers will likely step in with a defined risk below the level to position for a rally back into the 0.6050 resistance. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the 0.5773 level next. NZDUSD Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have a downward trendline defining the bearish momentum. If we get a pullback, the sellers will likely lean on the trendline to position for more downside, while the buyers will look for a break higher to increase the bullish bets into new highs.NZDUSD Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have another minor downward trendline defining the bearish momentum on this timeframe. If we were to get a pullback, the buyers will likely lean on it to position for the break below the 0.5850 level, while the buyers will look for a break higher to increase the bullish bets into the next major trendline. The red lines define the average daily range for today. Upcoming CatalystsToday we have the US PPI and the US Jobless Claims figures. Tomorrow, we conclude the week with the US Retail Sales data. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

EUR/CHF Forecast: Watching for a Breakout from Sideways Trading

Nov 14, 2024 | 02:10 am

The Euro has been all over the place against the Swiss franc during the trading session on Wednesday, as we continue to look at a market that just simply has no idea what to do with itself.

CAD/JPY Forecast: CAD Pushes Higher Against Yen

Nov 14, 2024 | 01:58 am

The Canadian dollar initially pulled back just a bit during the early hours on Wednesday, as the Japanese yen saw a little bit of strength early, but we have since turned around to show signs of life.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis – The market expects the Fed to pause soon

Nov 14, 2024 | 01:45 am

Fundamental OverviewThe US CPI yesterday came in line with expectations leading to a bit of a “sell the fact” reaction in the US Dollar. The bullish momentum picked up a bit later though as Fed’s Logan delivered a hawkish comment saying that “models show that Fed funds could be very close to neutral” basically implying a lot more cautious approach on rate cuts in 2025.The market is viewing all of this in light of the recent US election as Trump’s policies are likely to spur growth and potentially keep inflation above target for longer, making the Fed’s job of bringing inflation back to target a bit harder. AUDUSD Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that AUDUSD broke through the recent low around the 0.6537 level and extended the drop into the 0.6460 level as the US Dollar restarted its run on stronger US data. The natural target should be around the 0.6362 level. From a risk management perspective, the sellers will have a better risk to reward setup around the trendline. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to start targeting a rally into the top of the yearly range around the 0.69 handle. AUDUSD Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have another minor downward trendline defining the current bearish momentum. If we were to get a pullback, the sellers will likely lean on the trendline with a defined risk above it to position for a drop into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to start targeting a bigger pullback into the major trendline.AUDUSD Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, there’s not much more we can add although we can see that we have a minor resistance zone around the 0.65 handle. If the price gets there, we can expect the sellers to pile in for move lower, while the buyers will look for a break higher. The red lines define the average daily range for today. Upcoming CatalystsToday we have the US PPI and the US Jobless Claims figures. Tomorrow, we conclude the week with the US Retail Sales data. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

USD/RUB Analysis: Steady Bullish Trend and the 100.0000 Now in Sight

Nov 14, 2024 | 01:40 am

The USD/RUB has demonstrated a rather nervous bullish trend since the end of July this year, the currency pair is now trading within sight of the important 100.0000 juncture.

Dow Jones Forecast: Eyes Set on 45K After Market Volatility

Nov 14, 2024 | 01:36 am

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has been all over the place during the trading session, initially falling pretty significantly, then rallying, then falling again as we continue to undulate near the 44,000 level.

USDJPY Technical Analysis – The market is sensing a change

Nov 14, 2024 | 01:00 am

Fundamental OverviewThe US CPI yesterday came in line with expectations leading to a bit of a “sell the fact” reaction in the US Dollar. The bullish momentum picked up a bit later though as Fed’s Logan delivered a hawkish comment saying that “models show that Fed funds could be very close to neutral” basically implying a lot more cautious approach on rate cuts in 2025.The market is viewing all of this in light of the recent US election as Trump’s policies are likely to spur growth and potentially keep inflation above target for longer, making the Fed’s job of bringing inflation back to target a bit harder. USDJPY Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that USDJPY finally extended the rally into new highs helped by a hawkish comment from Fed’s Logan. There’s no strong technical resistance now at least until the 160.00 handle. If we get a pullback, the buyers will likely lean on the trendline with a defined risk below it to position for a rally into the 160.00 handle. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to start targeting a drop back into the 152.00 support. USDJPY Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor upward trendline defining the current bullish momentum. If we get a pullback, the buyers will likely lean on it to position for new highs, while the sellers will look for a break lower to target a break below the major trendline. USDJPY Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, there’s not much else we can add as from a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a better setup around the trendline, while the sellers are better to wait for a technical break lower instead of trying to catch the top. The red lines define the average daily range for today. Upcoming CatalystsToday we have the US PPI and the US Jobless Claims figures. Tomorrow, we conclude the week with the US Retail Sales data. See the video below This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

USD/INR Analysis: More Day Trading Concerns Amidst Speculative Highs

Nov 14, 2024 | 00:57 am

The USD/INR has seen new highs in early trading this morning, and day traders who are speculating on the currency pair need to remain vigilant as the bullish trend flourishes in choppy conditions.

GBP/USD Forex Signal: Cable Tests Major Support on Wednesday

Nov 14, 2024 | 00:53 am

During my daily analysis of major currency pairs, the GBP/USD pair has captured a bit of attention due to the fact that we are at a major crossroads when it comes to the technical analysis aspect of this market.

EUR/AUD Forecast: Rallies After Bounce Against the Aussie Dollar

Nov 14, 2024 | 00:44 am

The euro have been a little bit positive during the trading session on Wednesday against the Australian dollar as it looks like we are threatening the 50 day EMA.

Gold Forecast: Gold Gives Up Initial Rally on Wednesday

Nov 14, 2024 | 00:44 am

During my daily analysis of the gold market, the first thing that I notice is that we did try to rally, but we gave back those gains to show signs of hesitation.

Silver Forecast: Continues to Search for Buying Momentum

Nov 14, 2024 | 00:36 am

Silver has been all over the place during the trading session on Wednesday in sharp contrast to Tuesday, which initially fell, but then turned around to see a lot of support.

USD/CAD Forecast: US Dollar Slams into Major Resistance Against Canadian Dollar

Nov 14, 2024 | 00:32 am

During my daily analysis of the USD/CAD pair, it becomes obvious to me that we are in a strong uptrend, and we are threatening a major resistance barrier above.

USD/JPY Forecast: US Dollar Continues to Rally Against Japanese Yen

Nov 14, 2024 | 00:27 am

During my daily analysis of the USD/JPY pair, it’s obvious that the US dollar has broken above a major resistance barrier in the form of the ¥155 level.

USD/ZAR Forecast: US Dollar Soars Against South African Rand

Nov 14, 2024 | 00:20 am

In my daily analysis of exotic currency pairs, it’s worth noting that the US dollar initially fell against the South African Rand, only to find a ton of support underneath to keep the market somewhat afloat.

GBP/USD Forex Signal: Bears Prevail Amid Sticky US Inflation

Nov 14, 2024 | 00:12 am

The GBP/USD exchange rate remained under intense pressure, falling to its lowest level since August 8.

EUR/USD Forex Signal: Path of the Least Resistance is Downward

Nov 14, 2024 | 00:07 am

The EUR/USD pair continued its strong bearish trend, falling to its lowest level since November 2023 after the US published the October inflation data.

AUD/USD Forex Signal: Bearish Price Channel Pushes Price to August Lows

Nov 14, 2024 | 00:01 am

The Forex market is seeing a strong US Dollar which is making gains against riskier currencies following the Trump and Republican victory in the USA.

Gold reverses lower. On pace for the 4th day in a row lower

Nov 13, 2024 | 12:33 pm

The price of gold traded as high as $2618.84. At session highs, the price was up $20.94 and it looked like the 3-day slide was going to be snapped. However, the price has since reversed back to the downside and the price is now trading down -$22.26 or -0.87% at $2575.49.Technically, the price has moved below a trend line connecting the February low to the August low. That level cuts across at $2588. Staying below is more bearish. On the downside, the price is also getting closer to the rising 100-day MA at $2540.36. Just ahead of that is the swing low from September 18 at $2546.64. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

GBPUSD moves below retracement level and runs to the next swing area target. What next?

Nov 13, 2024 | 11:38 am

The GBP/USD has declined in trading today, breaking below the 61.8% retracement level of the move up from the April 2024 low, which sits at 1.2732. Yesterday, the price briefly dipped below this key retracement level before rebounding back upward. However, today’s session has seen renewed selling pressure as the pair failed to hold above this level in the U.S. trading session.In late trading yesterday and early trading today, buyers attempted to defend the retracement level, but ultimately the price fell further, reaching a low near the top of a critical swing area between 1.2656 and 1.2686. This level acted as support, temporarily halting the decline and allowing the price to rise back to around 1.2716. Currently, the price sits between the 61.8% retracement level at 1.2732 and the upper bound of the swing area at 1.2686, signaling an ongoing tug-of-war between buyers and sellers.Looking ahead, a decisive move above the 61.8% retracement at 1.2732 could disappoint sellers and pave the way for further upside targets. Key levels include today’s high at 1.2768, followed by the August 16 low of 1.2798, and ultimately the 200-day moving average at 1.2818. Conversely, if the pair continues to trade below the 61.8% retracement level, traders may target the swing area support between 1.2656 and 1.2686 as the next focus for sellers----------------------------------GBP/USD SummaryThe GBP/USD broke below the 61.8% retracement level (1.2732) today, despite yesterday's rebound.Key Levels:Resistance:1.2732 (61.8% retracement)1.2768 (today's high)1.2798 (Aug 16 low)1.2818 (200-day MA)Support:1.2656-1.2686 (swing area)Outlook:Buyers and sellers are in a tug-of-war between 1.2686 and 1.2732. A break above 1.2732 could lead to upside momentum, while continued trading below 1.2732 may target the 1.2656-1.2686 support. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

USDJPY is back up pushing topside resistance at 155.21. Key level for buyers/sellers.

Nov 13, 2024 | 09:06 am

The USDJPY has seen a dip today that gave the sellers some short term control below 154.54, but momentum faded quickly and sellers have turned to buyers. The price has now moved back up toward the high for the day and also the high of a swing area at 155.21. The price is currently trading just above that level as buyers make a play on a break. Traders looking for more upside in the USDJPY will now be counting on level for increased momentum to the upside on the break. Staying above will traders looking toward the 156.00 level with other resistance up near 157.116.For sellers, they now need to write back below the 154.54 level and stay below that level to get any support additional support in that direction. Absent that, and the buyers are still in firm control . This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

EURUSD runs to a new low, bounces. Now can the sellers put a lid on the correction?

Nov 13, 2024 | 08:16 am

The EURUSD ran to a new low which extended to a low of 1.0555. That moved away from the 2024 old low at 1.06005. Recall yesterday, the price moved below that level to a low of 1.0594. In trading today the price moved to a new low of 1.0592 but each break failed.After the CPI data, the price moved back up toward the swing low from May 1 at 1.06491. The high price reached 1.0653 and quickly reversed back to the downside.Once the 1.0600 level was broken again, buyers turn to sellers forcing price to the low at 1.0555.With the buyers having a chance and failing, and the sellers taking control below 1.06005, the time is now for the sellers to put a lid on any correction near the old low for the year. If the price can stay below that level, I would think that there will be added disappointment on the failed breaks.PS Also in the area is the 38.2% retracement of the daily chart. The move up from the 2022 low to the 2023 high has the 38.2% retracement at 1.06106. A more conservative risk level (i.e. stop) for shorts looking for more downside would be this level. It is time for the sellers to take more control. Can sellers keep a lid on the pair between 1.06005 -1.0610 area? That is the key. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Dollar selling does not last long

Nov 13, 2024 | 06:44 am

The USD selling did not last long.EURUSD: EURUSD moved up to and through the next target at 1.0649, but not by much, the price has since rotated back down toward the 1.0600 level. The current price is trading at 1.0605. Break back below 1.0600 (low from August and old low for the year) and stay below will have traders looking toward the lows from today at 1.0592. The price moves to stay below 1.0600 to scare the buyers and empower the sellers. GBPUSD: The GBPUSD is trading to new session lows, and in the process is back below the 61.8% retracement at 1.27322. Stay below that level gives the sellers more control with the next target between 1.2665 and 1.2685.USDCAD: The USDCAD extended above the high from yesterday at 1.2966 and will moved also above the 2022 high price at 1.2977. The price is trading at the highest level going back to 2020. Staying above 1.3966 now (and more conservatively 1.2945 the 2024 old high) and the buyers are in control. AUDUSD: The AUDUSD is trading to a new session low and in the process is testing the low of a swing area between 0.6506 and 0.65112. Get below that level should open the door for more downside probing. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Kickstart the FX trading day with a technical look after the CPI data

Nov 13, 2024 | 06:05 am

EURUSD SummaryThe EURUSD failed to break below 1.0601 (2024 lows) for the second time, bouncing back to 1.06428.Key Levels:Resistance:1.0649 (May 1 low)1.0665-1.0670 (June triple bottomSupport:1.0600. The old low for the year from APril The low from yesterday and today near 1.05926Lower at 1.0483-1.0533 (swing area)Outlook:Buyers need to break resistance levels to gain momentum, otherwise sellers remain in control-----------------------------------------USDJPY SummaryThe USDJPY reached 155.23, slightly above the 155.21 swing area resistance, before pulling back.Key Levels:Resistance:155.21-23 (swing area)Support:154.54 (short-term support). The current price is breaking below that level. Stay below keeps the sellers in play with work to do 153.88 (July 31, Oct 28-29 swing highs)153.397 (61.8% retracement of July's downtrend)Outlook:Buyers remain in control unless the price breaks and stays below 154.54. On the topside, a break above 155.21-23 could fuel further upside momentum, while a break below 154.54 may lead to further downside.------------------------------------------GBPUSD SummaryThe GBPUSD bounced off the 61.8% retracement level (1.37322) twice, suggesting buyer support.Key Levels:Resistance:1.2800 (near-term resistance)1.2818 (200-day MA)1.28329-1.28719 (swing area and 50% midpoint)Support:1.27322 (61.8% retracement) Stay above gives the buyers some hope. Move below is more bearish. 1.26657-1.2685 (swing area)1.26137 (June/July lows)Outlook:Buyers are pausing at the 61.8% retracement. The price has moved above 1.27529 after CPI but has to stay above to give the buyers some hope. Breaking above 1.2800 could spark further upside, while breaking below 1.26657 may lead to a restart of the downside momentum This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

What technical levels are in play to start the North American trading day for November 13

Nov 13, 2024 | 05:12 am

The North American session is beginning with the USD relatively steady. The EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF, USDCAD, and NZDUSD are all within 0.10% of the closing levels from yesterday. The biggest mover is the USDJPY with a change of 0.21%.US CPI will be released at the bottom of the hour with the expectation of 0.2% MoM for the headline and 0.3% for the core. The YoY headline is expected to move up to 2.6% from 2.4% (a year ago, the data showed a 0.0%. That will drop out of the YoY calculations this year). The Core YoY is expected to remain unchanged at 3.3%, uncomfortably above 2.0% target.Fed speakers today:Dallas Fed Pres Lorie Logan at 9:35 AM ETSt. Louis Fed Pres Musalem at 1 PM ETKC Fed Pres Schmid at 1:30 PM ET. US yields are also relatively steady with the 2 year up 0.7 bps after a move of about 9 bps higher yesterday. The 10 year is down -1.3 bps after its run higher yesterday. US stocks in pre-market trading are trading lower after declines yesterday. Future are implying:Dow -67 points. Yesterday, the price fell -382 pointsS&P - 7.49 points after yesterday's decline of -17.36 pointsNasdaq -37.6 points after yesterday's decline of also -17.36 points.In other markets: Crude oil is up $0.28 or 0.44% at $68.39Gold is up $10.73 at $2608 after a few days of declinesBitcoin is steady at %$87,735 a day after breaching $90,000 for the first time (high reached $90,243). EURUSD: The EURUSD made a second try to break below the old 2024 lows at 1.0601 today. Yesterday, the price dipped below the level but only to 1.05943. Today's attempt bottomed at 1.05926 and failed again. The price has bounced to 1.06428 so fall. The low from May 1 at 1.0649 and then the triple bottom from three successive weeks in June at 1.0665 to 1.0670 are upside targets that need to be broken to give the buyers some hope. Absent that, and the sellers are still in control. A move below the lows and the next target area comes at a swing area between 1.0483 and 1.0533 (wide but real). USDJPY: The USDJPY moved higher yesterday and back into a swing area target going back in time to April 2024 between 154.54 and 155.21. The price fell below that swing area in July with a test of the 155.21 high area before falling sharply. That high was tested today when the price high reached 155.23 just 2-pips above the extreme and backed off. The price is trading back in the middle of the swing area now and in the short term will still take a move below 154.54 (and staying below) to give the sellers some room to breathe. Absent that, and the buyers are still firmly in control. On a downside break below 154.54, the 153.88 swing highs from July 31 and then October 28 and October 29 would need to be broken and remain broken with the next target at the broken 61.8% of the move down from the July high at 153.397. A break above the highs at 155.21-23 opens the door for more upside momentumGBPUSD: The GBPUSD dipped below the 61.8% retracement target during yesterday's trading at 1.37322. The low reached 1.27183 but quickly bounced. The low today reached 1.2729 just 3 pips below that retracement level, before finding buyers again. The 61.8% seems to be causing traders cause for pause now. Having said that the upside is limited to a high of 1.2758 so far today. ON more upside there is not a lot of resistance until 1.27978 (call it 1.2800). Above that and the 200 day MA at 1.2818 and a swing area at 1.28329 to 1.28719 (including the 50% midpoint of the rance since the April low). ON the downside, there is a swing area between 1.26657 to 1.2685 to stretch toward on more downside momentum. Below that, and the 1.26137 would be eyed (lows from end of June and early July). USDCHF: The USDCHF fell has traded above and below the 200 day MA at 0.8818 in trading yesterday and today. More recently, buyers have been holding support near the level giving them some hope for more upside momentum today. If so, the price needs to get and stay above the 0.88267 and continue to put more room between the 200 day MA and the price. Conversely, a move back below and trader will instead look toward the 50% at 0.87986. Move back below that level and the stretch lower would look toward 0.8771 to 0.8776 swing area. USDCAD: The USDCAD has traded up and down in a narrow range near highs. Yesterday the high price extended to 1.39664 for a new high for 2024, but fell short of the 2022 high at 1.3977. The 1.3945 was the old from August.and that level is holding support in the European session so far today. It would take a move and staying below to have buyers turn to sellers today and then targeting the 100 and 200 hour MAs at 1.3918 and 1.3911 respectively. A move below those MAs add to sellers comfort. . On the topside, getting above the high from yesterday at 1.3966 and the 2022 high at 1.3977 are needed to open the door to more buying in this pair. AUDUSD: The AUDUSD moved below a swing area low at 0.65357 yesterday and although the price moved above that low, the momentum has been limited today. On the downside, getting below a swing area from the end of July and early August and again last week, came in between 0.65068 and 0.6511. Below that and 0.6471 to 0.6511 would be eyed.NZDUSD: The NZDUSD has support at 0.5912. Yesterday the price dipped below that level to 0.59085 but failed on the break. Today the low could only reach 0.5917. On the topside, the low from two-weeks ago reached 0.59379 and that needs to be broken and stay broken IF the buyers are to have some hope for[…]

USDCAD Technical Analysis – We are challenging the 2-year high

Nov 13, 2024 | 03:26 am

Fundamental OverviewThe puzzling weakness in the US Dollar following Trump’s victory looks more and more like it was just a “sell the fact” reaction. The greenback is now back in the driving seat, and we might have also seen some pre-positioning in the past couple of days into a potentially hot US CPI report today.At the latest Fed’s decision, Fed Chair Powell said that they expect bumps on inflation and that one or two bad data months on inflation won’t change the process. This keeps the 25 bps cut in December in place even if we get higher inflation readings.The market though is forward-looking, and the rise in Treasury yields showed that the market sees risks to the inflation outlook. Moreover, the red sweep could increase those fears if the progress on inflation stalls, or worse, reverses. The market might have already assigned some premium to a higher than expected print, so there's some risk of a short-term "sell the fact" reaction on a higher than expected number.It goes without saying that a bigger than expected upside surprise should see the momentum increasing immediately with the US Dollar likely rallying across the board and Treasury yields shooting higher. On the other hand, a soft print will likely see the US Dollar and Treasury yields falling, although one can argue that it's just going to provide a pullback to go long the US Dollar and short bonds again at even better levels as future conditions will likely see inflation getting stuck above the target or even moving back higher.USDCAD Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that USDCAD is once again back at the 2-year high amid USD strength. The buyers will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into new highs, while the sellers will look for a rejection to position for a drop back into the 1.38 handle.USDCAD Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have a strong support zone around the 1.3825 level where the price got rejected from several times in the past weeks. We may now have a range between the 1.3825 level and the 1.3950 level. The market participants will continue to play the range until we get a breakout on either side. USDCAD Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, there’s not much else we can add here as the rangebound price action makes all the technical levels between the main support and resistance zones pretty weak. The red lines define the average daily range for today.Upcoming CatalystsToday, we have the US CPI report. Tomorrow, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US Retail Sales data. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

USDCHF Technical Analysis – A look at the chart ahead of the US CPI

Nov 13, 2024 | 02:30 am

Fundamental OverviewThe puzzling weakness in the US Dollar following Trump’s victory looks more and more like it was just a “sell the fact” reaction. The greenback is now back in the driving seat, and we might have also seen some pre-positioning in the past couple of days into a potentially hot US CPI report today.At the latest Fed’s decision, Fed Chair Powell said that they expect bumps on inflation and that one or two bad data months on inflation won’t change the process. This keeps the 25 bps cut in December in place even if we get higher inflation readings.The market though is forward-looking, and the rise in Treasury yields showed that the market sees risks to the inflation outlook. Moreover, the red sweep could increase those fears if the progress on inflation stalls, or worse, reverses. The market might have already assigned some premium to a higher than expected print, so there's some risk of a short-term "sell the fact" reaction on a higher than expected number.It goes without saying that a bigger than expected upside surprise should see the momentum increasing immediately with the US Dollar likely rallying across the board and Treasury yields shooting higher. On the other hand, a soft print will likely see the US Dollar and Treasury yields falling, although one can argue that it's just going to provide a pullback to go long the US Dollar and short bonds again at even better levels as future conditions will likely see inflation getting stuck above the target or even moving back higher.USDCHF Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that USDCHF broke through the key downward trendline following Trump’s victory and, after a brief pullback, continued higher as the trend in the US Dollar remains skewed to the upside. We now have an upward trendline defining the current bullish momentum. If we get a pullback, we can expect the buyers to lean on it to position for a rally into new highs, while the sellers will look for a break lower to pile in for a drop into the 0.85 handle. USDCHF Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have another minor upward trendline defining the bullish momentum on this timeframe. The buyers will likely keep on leaning on it to push into new highs, while the sellers will look for a break lower to start targeting new lows.USDCHF Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, there’s not much to add here as the buyers will look for a bounce around the trendline, while the sellers will look for a break. The US CPI report today is going to be a major catalyst, so it would be better to wait for the release before taking any position. The red lines define the average daily range for today.Upcoming CatalystsToday, we have the US CPI report. Tomorrow, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US Retail Sales data. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

EURUSD Technical Analysis – The price is at a key level ahead of the US CPI

Nov 13, 2024 | 01:56 am

Fundamental OverviewThe puzzling weakness in the US Dollar following Trump’s victory looks more and more like it was just a “sell the fact” reaction. The greenback is now back in the driving seat, and we might have also seen some pre-positioning in the past couple of days into a potentially hot US CPI report today.At the latest Fed’s decision, Fed Chair Powell said that they expect bumps on inflation and that one or two bad data months on inflation won’t change the process. This keeps the 25 bps cut in December in place even if we get higher inflation readings.The market though is forward-looking, and the rise in Treasury yields showed that the market sees risks to the inflation outlook. Moreover, the red sweep could increase those fears if the progress on inflation stalls, or worse, reverses. The market might have already assigned some premium to a higher than expected print, so there's some risk of a short-term "sell the fact" reaction on a higher than expected number.It goes without saying that a bigger than expected upside surprise should see the momentum increasing immediately with the US Dollar likely rallying across the board and Treasury yields shooting higher. On the other hand, a soft print will likely see the US Dollar and Treasury yields falling, although one can argue that it's just going to provide a pullback to go long the US Dollar and short bonds again at even better levels as future conditions will likely see inflation getting stuck above the target or even moving back higher.EURUSD Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that EURUSD broke through the key support zone around the 1.0777 following the Trump’s victor, retested it and eventually continued lower. We are now testing another key level at 1.06 handle, and this is where the buyers are stepping in with a defined risk below the level to position for a rally back into the 1.0777 level. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the 1.05 handle next.EURUSD Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have a downward trendline defining the current bearish momentum. We can expect the sellers to lean on it to position for the break below the 1.06 handle, while the buyers will look for a break higher to increase the bullish bets into the 1.0777 level. EURUSD Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor resistance zone around the 1.0630 level where we have the trendline for confluence. This is where the sellers are likely to step in with a defined risk above the trendline to position for the break below the 1.06 handle. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break higher to increase the bullish bets into the 1.0777 level. The red lines define the average daily range for today. Upcoming CatalystsToday, we have the US CPI report. Tomorrow, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US Retail Sales data. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Gold Technical Analysis – It’s a make it or break it moment for gold

Nov 13, 2024 | 00:17 am

Fundamental OverviewGold is now down almost 6% from the US election day. That shouldn’t be surprising as the last time we got a red sweep gold dropped by more than 16%.The reason is that a red sweep brings a more expansionary fiscal policy and should be not only positive for growth but also for inflation. In fact, the market now sees just two 25 bps rate cuts in 2025 which is already much less than the four projected by the Fed in September.In the bigger picture, gold remains in a bullish trend as real yields will likely continue to fall amid the Fed’s easing cycle, but for now the short-term trend is to the downside due to the repricing in rate cuts expectations. Gold Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that gold is now trading near the key trendline around the 2600 level. This is where the buyers are stepping in with a defined risk below the trendline to position for a rally into a new all-time high. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the next trendline around the 2400 level. Gold Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see more clearly the strong support zone we have around the 2600 level where there’s the confluence of the previous swing low level and the trendline. We can see that we also have a downward trendline defining the current bearish momentum. If we get a pullback, the sellers will likely lean on it to position for the break below the major trendline, while the buyers will look for a break higher to increase the bullish bets into a new all-time high.Gold Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have another minor downward trendline defining the bearish momentum on this timeframe. More aggressive sellers might lean on this one to position for the break of the major trendline, while the buyers will look for a break higher to target the pullback into the next downward trendline. The red lines define the average daily range for today. Upcoming CatalystsToday, we have the US CPI report. Tomorrow, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US Retail Sales data. See the video below This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

USDCHF extends above the 200 day MA

Nov 12, 2024 | 10:43 am

The USDCHF has moved up to a high of 0.88357. That is just short of a high swing area on the daily chart above at 0.88379. Get above that level and stay above, opens the door for more upside momentum. ON the downside, the closest risk is the 200 day MA, but more conservative risk would be the 50% of the move down from the May high at 0.87986. I would think that short term traders seeing a move above the 50% and the 200 day MA would want to see both those technical levels remain broken. If not, there could be some disappointment on the failed break and more downside corrective probing. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

US 10 year yield looks to close at the highest level since July 1

Nov 12, 2024 | 10:21 am

The high yield close for the 10-year note last week reached 4.433%. The current yield is currently at 4.4315%, up 12.3 basis points. A close above would be the highest close going back to July 1, 2024 when the close came in at 4.465%. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

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